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And Now – A Word From Our Sponsors! March 5, 2007

Posted by liverpoolchamber in Custom House, News.

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Liverpool Chamber’s new e-newsletter service is sponsored by Custom House. Sign up (via the above link) to up to get all the business news that matters as well as what’s happening at the Chamber.

Custom House are a leading global provider of foreign exchange services and payment solutions to businesses and individuals. Whether you’re making payments, receiving funds, or working to establishing a stable payment relationship with foreign businesses partners, they can provide custom solutions for your business needs.

Contact Ian Meyer on 07932 024 893 to find out more.

Read the Custom House weekly money market update by clicking on ‘more’.

Custom House weekly money market update

February’s non-farm payrolls should dominate in the US this week, though fixed income and  forex markets will also  be looking to global stocks and movements in the yen for direction following last week’s moves. Payrolls are expected to rise by 123,000,  which is below the average of the past 6 months.  Furthermore, the risks could be to the downside given the recent trend in weekly jobless  claims. Wednesday’s ADP report could provide some direction ahead of the release. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 4.6%. Other key data in the US include February’s services ISM and pending home sales for January. A host of Fed officials, including Bernanke, are due to speak over the week, with the Beige Book also scheduled for release. Meanwhile, forex markets will also be keeping a close eye on Friday’s international trade data, which are expected to show a contraction in the deficit as lower oil prices impact.

The ECB meets on Thursday. Another 0.25% rate hike has been well signalled at this point, which would bring the refi rate to 3.75%. Thus, markets will be more interested in the tone of the post meeting press conference for direction on future moves.
Speeches by ECB officials consistently highlight that the level of official rates remains low. Thus, Trichet may strike a hawkish tone, which could provide a lift for the euro. He is also due to present the new quarterly ECB staff forecasts. In terms of eurozone data, releases including the services PMIs and revised Q4 GDP data should confirm the case for higher rate

The BoE meets this week amid much speculation about the future course of UK rates. In terms of recent communication, the Bank has clearly left the door open to further tightening but it may wait a little longer before looking to increase rates again, so that it can assess the impact of the rate hikes seen so far.  UK data which could provide some direction ahead of the meeting include the services CIPS and the BRC retail sales surveys. After last month’s decline from record highs, the services CIPS is forecast to remain unchanged. Other data due over the week include the Halifax house price survey and industrial production.

Overnight there has been another sharp rally in the yen, taking it to three month highs against the dollar. The move was partly triggered by the decision of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to raise the minimum amount needed to trade yen futures because of its increased volatility. In addition, the People’s Bank of China’s Zhou said that China may widen the yuan’s trading band. Strong Japanese capital spending data and falling commodity and equity prices also added to the move.
In the near term, the yen appears to have continuing upside momentum and movements in the currency along with the trend in global stock markets could well continue to dominate forex markets for much of the week


1. Eddie Wolfe - March 9, 2007

Been doing a fair bit of paper trading on the yen, and am finding it difficult. I’ve seen many forex ebooks about, and wondered whether you could recommend a good one.

2. liverpoolchamber - March 10, 2007

Your best bet, in the first instance, might be to contact Liverpool Chamber’s International Business team. You can see their web page here or email them at export@liverpoolchamber.org.uk.

Hope this helps.

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